While Saturday saw violent protests in the Valley, largely concentrated in areas around Sopore (Guru's hometown) and Baramulla, leading to 38 people getting injured, Sunday was quieter with only 16 injuries (including four security personnel). While seven people were injured in Guru's village Mazbugh in Sopore, five were injured in police firing in Watergam, Rasiyabad near Baramulla. One of the injured, who took a bullet in the abdomen, is reported to be serious.
Despite these gaps in exercise of restraint and aggressive statements from various quarters in the Valley, there is a sense that things may not spin out of control as long as there is no civilian casualty. One of the reasons being cited is the expectation of profit from the second consecutive bumper tourist season.
Over 1,300 tourists had reached the state since Guru's hanging and the volume is expected to surge once tulips start blooming. Last season, 13 lakh tourists visited the Valley. This was in addition to six lakh who were there for Amarnath yatra and a crore who visited Vaishno Devi. Administration believes that people are hoping for a repeat; an expectation that may help temper the intensity of protests which if stretched will affect inflow of tourists.
Another belief in the establishment is that Guru's hanging has not come as too big a shock for the Valley which was somewhat expecting it after the hanging of Ajmal Kasab.
The relative quiet -- which led Jammu and Kashmir CM Omar Abdullah to admit that his government had feared far worse - following the initial unrest was significant as the protests on Sunday were more organized unlike the spontaneous ones on Saturday.
This was controlled further by strict and cautious policing. Security forces patrolled highways and main roads through the night to ensure that the protesters didn't get to block traffic by placing boulders or felling trees. It was a busy night for Jammu and Kashmir police, Army and paramilitary forces but it ensured that vehicles had no trouble moving.
Through Sunday, forces restricted movements even in the interior parts of Srinagar, which are generally not monitored closely. It was taking advantage of this that in 2010, stone-palters had gathered in alleys and then launched attacks on security forces.
Strict instructions have gone out from state DG Ashok Prasad to security men to not aim their guns on protesters above waist in case of mob violence as a casualty at this stage could throw things out of gear with secessionists using the issue to whip up passions. The instructions have been largely followed with exceptions like the Rasiyabad incident and one person receiving a bullet injury in the shoulder on Saturday when an Army unit, freshly deployed in the state and, hence, not fully steeped in the doctrine of maximum restraint, fired in self-defence at Handwara.
The arrival of 2,000 CRPF personnel also helped the administration. These troops were returning from leave and had reached Jammu but the administration decided against moving them on Friday evening lest it aroused suspicion that something was amiss.
Valley sources, however, said it may well be the lull before the Friday storm. "Unless Friday, when the Valley is expected to see intensified protests, passes off without much incident, nothing can be said. There is anger against the Omar Abdullah government and the Centre in the Valley, but no one wants long-drawn unrest. If this stage passes off, the protests may die down within 15 days," the source said.
Meanwhile, militant groups have started fishing in troubled waters. Both LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed have issued threats to stage attacks and conduct blasts both within and outside the Valley. While all states have been put on alert, there is no immediate threat, security agencies said. "There is as yet no specific intelligence on any terror attack," an intelligence official said.
